SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1833

MD 1833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO

Mesoscale Discussion 1833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042046Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely over parts of southeast
AZ and southwest NM this afternoon/evening. Some storms could
produce strong/severe gusts or isolated hail. A WW is possible, but
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon satellite and radar imagery across the
Southwest showed initial convective development is underway over the
higher terrain of southeastern AZ and southwest NM. Driven in part
by enhanced surface convergence near a thermally induced surface
low, thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over the
next several hours. The air mass downstream is expected to continue
to destabilize, with surface temperatures near/exceeding 100 degrees
F amid mid to upper 50s F dewpoints supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg.

With time, congealing outflow and modest easterly flow aloft should
allow for one or more clusters to move westward out of the higher
terrain. Additional storms may develop near the international border
and spread northwestward into the lower deserts. Isolated hail
(1-1.25 inches) will be possible with these initial updrafts, owing
to the moderate buoyancy and initially cellular storm mode. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity will also favor
plentiful evaporative cooling and strong downdrafts. The potential
for dry microbursts and associated outflow could support 60-80 mph
gusts with the most robust clusters through the evening. Given the
increasing coverage of thunderstorms and a risk for strong/severe
gusts this evening, a WW is being considered over parts of
southeastern AZ and southwest NM.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31621218 32251253 33171072 33790953 33790862 33290794
            32620786 32340789 31890795 31570805 31380816 31200829
            31140886 31140998 31151084 31181117 31621218 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC MD 1832

MD 1832 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES

Mesoscale Discussion 1832
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...parts of far southeastern Colorado...northeast New
Mexico and the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042022Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Initial convection over the higher terrain should
gradually increase in coverage late this afternoon. Isolated hail
and damaging gusts are possible with the strongest storms. A WW is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, visible imagery showed increased
vertical development of cumulus along the ridge tops of the Raton
Mesa and Sangre De Cristos Range. Strong surface heating amid a weak
post-frontal upslope flow regime is supporting gradual air mass
destabilization which is forecast to continue much of this
afternoon. While not overly robust, around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
mid-level lapse rates ~ 8 C/km will be sufficient to support strong
updrafts as convection intensifies.

Current expectations are for storms to gradually develop and move
off the higher terrain onto the southern High Plains, aided by
modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft. As convection intensifies
late this afternoon/evening, some organization into multicell
clusters or transient supercells is possible owing to 30-35 kts of
deep-layer shear. This could support isolated hail with the stronger
storms, along with some potential for damaging/severe gusts with
low-level lapse rates being fairly steep. While some severe risk is
possible into this evening, modest forcing for ascent and buoyancy
suggest the threat will be isolated. A WW is unlikely.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37900537 37990466 37040278 36660181 35750196 35440227
            34980311 34890400 35070475 35420522 35650550 35980556
            36430556 37900537 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN