SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1210

MD 1210 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA

Mesoscale Discussion 1210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...The Big Bend region of Florida into far southern
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201742Z - 201945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher wind potential may be
emerging across the Big Bend region of Florida and into adjacent
portions of far southern Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows steady deepening of
incipient convection to the west of Tallahassee, FL that has
developed within a weak low-level confluence zone. This activity may
be influenced by a weak MCV noted in visible imagery and regional
VWP observations across extreme southwest GA. Over the past hour,
the KTLH VWP has shown a slight increase in 6 km winds that is
supporting some hodograph elongation as the MCV passes to the north.
Consequently, it appears plausible that a loosely organized
convective band may emerge over the next 1-2 hours across the Big
Bend region as convection continues to intensify. Further warming of
the downstream environment will likely yield low-level lapse rates
on the order of 7-8 C/km that should support some potential for
damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. Despite this potential,
the modest kinematic environment and a pocket of drier, less buoyant
air far downstream across northern FL will likely limit the overall
intensity, duration, and spatial extent of this threat and negate
the need for watch issuance.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29738470 30078479 30278494 30428500 30578495 30648476
            30768283 30698258 30558243 30318246 29988258 29718287
            29658298 29608338 29878365 29998385 30068406 30038422
            29898439 29738470 

SPC MD 1209

MD 1209 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

Mesoscale Discussion 1209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201706Z - 201930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts associated with wet
downbursts will be possible through late afternoon. This threat will
remain sufficiently isolated and transient to negate the need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has been well underway over the
past hour per regional radar and GOES imagery. Minimal capping
within a very moist environment, combined with weak ascent along a
subtle confluence axis, has resulted in convective initiation
slightly earlier than anticipated by most 12z solutions. Despite
around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, negligible deep-layer wind shear will
promote mainly pulse convection and multi-cell clusters with several
outflow boundaries from this initial activity already apparent in
radar imagery. With surface temperatures still relatively early in
the diurnal heating cycle, low-level thermodynamic conditions
(primarily low-level lapse rates) are currently not optimal to
support a more robust downburst threat. However, continued heating
through the afternoon should yield pockets of higher MLCAPE and
steeper low-level lapse rates that should favor a greater potential
for strong to severe downbursts as convection spreads
east/southeast. Based on latest radar/satellite trends, this appears
most likely along the east-central to southeastern FL Peninsula.
Regardless, the overall severe wind risk will likely remain fairly
isolated and transient.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   25408019 25448049 25678077 26148116 26788136 27768181
            28088188 28538174 28778154 28858108 28858073 28438045
            28178045 27848037 27408018 27098007 26837999 26638000
            25718007 25408019 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH